Best Art Direction

Statistically speaking: The mise-en-scène of a Paris train station impressed the voters at the Critics’ Choice Awards enough for them to give the nod to Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo for their accomplishments with Hugo. The gorgeous set pieces used to recreate turn-of-the-century cinema, like the watershed A Trip to the Moon, undoubtedly put the duo over the top.

Going by your gut: With special acknowledgment from the lesser known, but no less important, Art Directors Guild, the production team from Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 may finally be able to cast a spell over voters and win something for the first time in the series. Just like The Lord of the Rings got the biggest award response for its finale, the Harry Potter franchise could accomplish the same feat.

Best Film Editing

Statistically speaking: Going back to the Critics’ Choice selections, the likeliest candidates here are Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter for their demonstration of great proficiency in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Even for someone like me who found David Fincher’s remake of the Swedish hit to be completely unnecessary, that opening title sequence was absolutely awesome.

Going by your gut: A category that doesn’t get its proper due is tough to judge. The lighter touch of editing in The Descendants and Moneyball certainly looks good in each. However, the more apparent style in Hugo and The Artist probably garnered attention from those marking the ballot with little knowledge of the editing process.

Best Visual Effects

Statistically speaking: Having impressed BAFTA constituents in its own country of origin, the eighth Harry Potter movie has some momentum going for it, not to mention the aforementioned feeling of rewarding the team at the last possible opportunity.

Going by your gut: Hmmm, a film with a dragon, a crumbling castle, and magical teleportation takes on three movies that have robots in one form or another. It never hurts to stand out from the pack, especially in this instance, and that’s what hurts Hugo, Real Steel and Transformers: Dark of the Moon. Still, if any movie’s effects can overtake the Harry Potter crew this time, it’s the amazing motion-capture of Rise of the Planet of the Apes.

Best Makeup

Statistically speaking: Speaking of the BAFTAs, the accolades given to Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland for their makeup in The Iron Lady bodes well for the team come Sunday. Believably aging people is a tricky business, but thanks to the two of them, Margaret Thatcher looked just as convincing in her 50s as in her 80s.

Going by your gut: Making a person appear older is tough. The act of hiding gender-defining features is even more delicate. Those responsible for Jack and Jill showed just what happens when you put as little effort into it as possible, but the Albert Nobbs team got it just right in making men of not one, but two women, both of whom happen to be up for acting awards. Talk about face value…

Best Original Score

Statistically speaking: A Golden Globe is just the tip of the iceberg for all the honors Ludovic Bource has gotten for the extra crucial musical score of The Artist. Just as the accompaniment would make or break the success of silent movies in their heyday, the snappy tunes stick out in this film than any other of 2011.

Going by your gut: When actress Kim Novak literally cried “rape” regarding Bource’s sampling of Bernard Herrmann’s theme from Vertigo in certain parts of the movie that undoubtedly had a poor effect on his chances of winning the Oscar. While many people may not take such an issue so personally, it could pave the way for someone else to snatch up the little golden man. My money’s on John Williams for War Horse, if that’s the case.

Best Original Song

Statistically speaking: The widespread praise for Brit McKenzie’s music from The Muppets all but guarantees his victory in the category for the existential “Man or Muppet.” The long-standing upset from The Muppet Movie not winning the same statuette for “The Rainbow Connection” only compounds that prediction.

Going by your gut: With only one other contender in the race, do we really need to pretend the Muppets can’t pull it off?

Best Original Screenplay

Statistically speaking: With a recent Golden Globe and a Writers Guild of America Award under his belt, Woody Allen is well on his way to the trifecta for the scripting of his intellectual fantasy Midnight in Paris. A formidable contestant in any year he’s in consideration, the filmmaker might want to make some room on his shelf right now.

Going by your gut: Woody has a pretty good lead going into the ceremony, but if anyone’s going to challenge him, it’ll be Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist. Here’s a weird coincidence: the American director’s movie is set in France in the 1920s, while the Frenchman’s film is set in America in the same decade.

(Article continued on next page)